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ABOUT THE SESSION

OVERVIEW:  As we enter the 3rd year of record downsizing of investments in the early-stage arena we need to pause to briefly look back so that we might begin to grasp where the best ROI opportunities are right now and how we can best take advantage of them.

 

THEN:  Was it really just 4 years ago when most of us were jumping for joy at our investment ecosystem?  Money was flowing from fire hoses in all directions;  startups and pre-seed rounds through $15m Series A deals at K4-MST were getting funded with great enthusiasm and the VC – Private Equity guys could not paper enough $50m+ deals!  Too many too fast?  Maybe, but not until late Q4 of 2021 did it look like a slowdown might be creeping into the equation.

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By the end of 2022 most of the hoses were down to a trickle and a new reality hit our world in 2023.  Ron Weissman began the series of harsh realities in our funding world and Pitchbook talked about a downturn of $147B.  We recognized that the timelines of our portfolios of great companies had slipped from the 5-7 year world into the 10-12+ year liquidity reality and many, if not most investors had had enough.

 

NOW:  As we move to the end of 2025 we are seeing a dim light at the end of the tunnel but no firm turn around is in sight.  So where are the opportunities and how do we adjust to take advantage of them?  I believe that we can look at 3 definite areas of significant opportunity, but only if we re-adjust our thinking to embrace the true brutality of today’s investment environment.

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  1. NEW INVESTMENTS:  Focus on nimble companies that can clearly demonstrate;

    1. A new and exciting solution to a big problem with an open and waiting marketplace – NO 1-offs

    2. A One-and-Done Single Funding Round to Exit

    3. A Strong ROI in 24-36 Months

  2. ENTER THE NEW ERA OF RE-START OPPORTUNITIES:

    1. Recognize the difference between Zombie / near-Zombie portfolio companies and Re-Start opportunities

      1. A company with truly great product or secret sauce that has not performed

      2. Initial focus on companies with little or no revenue but some product sales

  3.  SERIES A to IPO:   Focus on exceptionally strong companies that offer the potential to go from that one equity round to IPO in 12 - 18 months!

    1. Meet MDB Capital Partners - the 27 year-old VC that cloned the Safeguard Scientifics model, expanding Public Venture to a science.  17 IPOs - 5 Unicorns, 59% valued > $500m, and the remaining 11% valued at no less than 2X the strike price.​

    2. Meet IPO Angels, the locked in source to guaranteed access to 2-4 IPO opportunities every year for accredited investors.  The open access path to the very best public venture deal flow.

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